What's really going on 'out there'?

Change doesn't happen in isolation.

In the book Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner - the authors show that people who actively develop an open mind, by being insanely curious about a very wide range of topics and emerging developments in all sorts of weird and out-there subject matters are far better forecasters of how future might unfold than those who stick to just the subject areas in which they are experts in...or choose to limit their attention to.

The reason for this is because change doesn't happen in isolation.

As an example...

The future of the insurance industry in South Africa cannot be found inside the existing insurance industry.

Instead the future of insurance in South Africa will be heavily influenced by changes in other industries and shifts in society completely unrelated to insurance.

Understanding the cultural phenomenon behind the success of TikTok is most probably a far better place to find kernels of where insurance is heading than asking an actuary his opinion.  

So if you find yourself on the executive committee of an insurance company and you are in a workshop trying to design an insurance product that will serve the needs of insurance customers of the future - you'd be far better off asking a 13-year old schoolgirl what she thinks than your most highly-paid technical expert.

Better strategy

Better strategy starts with really understanding what's going on 'out there'.

Getting a good sense of what's happening politically, economically, developments in technology and being curious as to how culture and society is evolving and responding to change.

Know more of where the world is heading before you start to design your place in it.

Otherwise you will constantly find yourself surprised by what's going on and wasting a lot of time and money on solutions that have little relevance.