How Starbucks is planning on making a comeback

Starbucks has been in South Africa for a few years now.

There's an outlet at the Waterfront, one in Canal Walk and if memory doesn't desert me...one in Kloof Street.

We've never been to any of them.

And every time we walk past the one in Canal Walk, it's empty.

Personally, we don't actively have anything against the brand, but clearly we just don't have anything for it either. They don't seem to bother with any kind of active promotion or customer engagement here in South Africa; the shops are just there...should you want to visit. It's an expensive American import for those who love overpriced, complicated American coffee.

On a global stage, Starbucks has tasked a new CEO, Brian Niccol to wrestle the brand back into the hearts and minds of consumers, and WSJ sat down with him to understand what his 'grand strategy' might be.

As is usually the case when it comes to post-growth brands like Starbucks, there is no strategy; just a laundry list of areas of the business that he plans to optimise, which they assume will magically fend of the tidal wave of competition that they are now facing.

They'll 'Make Starbucks Great Again' by drawing on the coffee cups (like they used to), bring back the condiment bar, speeding up turnaround times and firing a bunch of old staff at Head Office.

It's the predictable MBA-playbook that usually creates some excitement in the short-term, but technically delays the death of the brand until they can offload it through some kind of M&A action in the future.

There is no strategy here.

No calculated, future-orientated grand scheme that is based sound futures research and shrewd conjecture as to what the customer of the future might find compelling. Nothing to suggest that the brand has a good idea of how they are to rebuild the 'defendable moat' that they once commanded in the marketplace.

What Starbucks is facing is colossal.

China's Luckin Coffee is a fast-growing chain that is quickly gaining (affordable) store footprint throughout the world and is incredibly popular with coffee drinkers thanks to a hyper-aggressive promotional drive.

See Starbucks' big problem is that they still wrongly believe that coffee drinkers give a damn about the brand (arrogantly neglecting to spend any money promoting themselves in a new territory like South Africa for example); when in fact - what coffee drinkers want...is just good-enough coffee, quickly at a good price.

It's unclear as to how long Starbucks in South Africa will be able to maintain premium storefronts in premium malls without doorbuster-type trade. But if the MBAs who are involved follow their predictable recipe - those great locations will soon be available to other retailers with stronger brands.

Arrogance is debilitating mindset with which to build anything. Here's hoping they are able to recognise that and do something about it first.