Forecasting vs. foresight

Forecasting

Forecasting the future is possible in relatively closed, predictable systems.

Historical data and the discernible patterns that can be extrapolated from it are projected forward in time, producing a forecast of what can be reasonably expected barring any kind of trend breaks.

Success in forecasting depends on the type of system being analysed, as well as the quality of the data, but when these conditions are met, it produces a reliable result.

Your car, for example, can to a certain degree of usefulness - forecast how far you are still able to drive without refuelling.

BUT...

Under conditions of uncertainty however, the accuracy and usefulness of forecasting decreases substantially and it's here..in the messy real-world...that the practice of foresight takes over.

Foresight

Foresight is a competence that makes use of a range of scientific frameworks and methodologies to make the exploration of alternatives futures more explicit and practically useful for executive decision-making.

It's value is not in the generation of a single image of what's ahead, it doesn't attempt to make a prediction of 'the future', or boldly forecast a certain anticipated outcome, but rather to sustainably build a broad mental and operational readiness within organisations, functioning as a tool to take strategic advantage of calculated emerging contextual conditions ahead of competitors.

Good strategy and effective leadership is very much dependent on a solid, consistent practice of foresight. Steering a business with any kind of aspiration for future success without foresight in these times of global upheaval, is not advisable.

Anticipating how the future may unfold is a part of our consciousness that we unconsciously do all of the time. Foresight is the structured program of gathering relevant knowledge related to the future and systematically analysing it to understand how best to be positioned to take advantage of change.

It's a powerful organisational asset well worth investing in.