With economies in lockdown it is sadly small business that suffers the most and this doesn't look good for the microfinance & fintech sectors that service developing markets.
Default rates are expected to skyrocket, which will be a nail in the coffin for most lenders.
Read: For microfinance lenders, covid-19 is an existential threat - The Economist
This plays into the recent shocking report that was researched by a group of South African actuaries who estimate that the government's economic lockdown intervention will cause reduced life expectancy, measured in years, to be 27 times worse than the virus itself.
Read: Actuaries warn Ramaphosa of a ‘humanitarian disaster to dwarf Covid-19′ if restrictive lockdown is not lifted - Daily Maverick
Meanwhile the business casualties blamed on the covid-19 pandemic in South Africa include; retailing group Edcon, Associated Media Publishing, Caxton's magazine devision, Comair and SAA.
There is understandably an outpouring of heartfelt condolences for the lost jobs, but the reality is that many of these organisations were operating in industries that were already in terminal decline; or their leadership teams simply failed to bother to innovate.
In which case, the economic shutdown has simply accelerated the inevitable and what the pandemic has highlighted is the real need to innovate business models as part of an overall strategy to grow more future-fit enterprises.
Read: Magazines, airlines and retailers aren’t ‘failing’ just because of Covid-19 - Moneyweb