The difficulty of futures thinking
So many organisations simply cannot see what the future is doing to the present.
Constructively exploring alternatives futures is a surprisingly difficult exercise.
The practice of building organisational anticipation is complex and layered.
Deeply-held assumptions and entrenched worldviews, that are no longer fit-for-purpose in relation to where the firm ought to be going, are understandably very challenging to surface and probe.
The easy approach to the future is prediction: declaring a single view of what will happen.
The far harder (and more useful) method is the development of on ongoing practice of anticipation that asks: what could happen, what is already changing, what are the implications, where are our assumptions fragile and what choices should we make now to remain adaptive?
Strategic failures don't happen because executive teams were ignorant of the changes that were happening around them, but rather because the warning signs were dismissed because they did not fit the dominant mental model of the firm.
So many organisations simply cannot see what the future is already doing to the present.
What's needed in response is the development of an organisational habit of purposefully looking earlier, wider and deeper.
Looking earlier means paying attention to weak signals before they become mainstream evidence.
Looking wider means examining adjacent systems, not only direct competitors or familiar industry categories.
Looking deeper means interrogating the assumptions, beliefs, incentives and structures that shape how the organisation sees and understands change.
Not just once a year - at the 'annual strategy breakaway', but consistently...all year long.
Futures thinking is tough. It takes commitment and lots of energy. But if an organisation is going to improve its relationship with uncertainty, the best time to start a proper programme of foresight (purposefully looking earlier, wider and deeper)...is today.