What would a socially cohesive South Africa look like and to what degree is it attainable by 2030?

During the recent address given by President Ramaphosa during the opening of parliament he made reference to The Indlulamithi Scenarios 2035; you may recall he spoke about Hadedas, Vultures and Weaver birds?

The bird names were the names given to each one of the three proposed scenarios that were written up by the team that created them in their attempt to explore the question; "What would a socially cohesive South Africa look like and to what degree is it attainable by 2030?'

Led by Professor Somadoda Fikeni, the original project included and incorporated the perspectives of a wide range of South Africans and identified 25 variables impacting the future trajectory of social cohesion in South Africa.

These variable were then analysed, careful considered then used to define three key driving forces: Social Inequality, Resistance, Resentment and Reconciliation and Institutional and Leadership Capacity.

From these the three 2025 scenarios - The Cooperation Nation represented by the sociable Weaver birds, The Recrimination Nation represented by the noisy Hadeda and The Desperation Nation represented by the Vulture - mentioned earlier, where then created.

South Africa has a long history of successfully using scenarios at critical times in our past to map out potential future trajectories and generate the urgency and motivation to deliver on a preferred path.

We can't remember too many occasions since 1994 that scenarios have been publicly mentioned by a sitting State President, but now is as good a time as any to once again dust off the ol' scenarios tool, to paint a vivid picture of what might be and rally the troops around the various alternatives that we as a nation face.

Strategy can all too often be presented in a very logical way. Logical is a good, but logic alone is not enough.

To be inspire action strategy needs to motivational, it needs to connect directly to the hearts people. It needs to affect them in some way by going beyond the mental layer, penetrating deeper down into the emotional realm of the audience, which is exactly what good scenarios are able to deliver. Facts and figures don't fire people up, vivid images of what might be do.

Unfortunately too many leaders seem to be very scared of communication that goes beyond the empirical. Their interpretation of connecting with people using emotion usually ends up with an instruction to be 'extremely hardcore'.

It's good to see President Ramaphosa turning once again to scenarios to communicate his vision; if you watch the audience carefully while he is doing this, you can see how it's moving people.

Previously: