The real value of forecasts

Many businesses do forecasting; it's an essential part of a strategy.

The real value of forecasting however is not in the prediction of business as usual (with an obligatory 8% increase for the coming calendar year) - it is in the early warning of stormy weather up ahead.

If your forecasting work just maps out the same old, same old year after year - then your forecasting efforts are pointless. If the weather in your city was the same every single day, then you would have very little need for a weather forecasting service.

Proper forecasting is meant to be an early warning system for trouble up ahead.

It is supposed to inform a business of a break in the 'business as usual' trend -  to take alternative actions early, to reduce the damage from a disaster.

How many people think that they are doing a good job of forecasting, but now realise that they are basically flying blind into the future? I suspect quite a few.

Perhaps now that so many executives having wrongly labelled the covid-19 pandemic as a 'black swan' event (which it never was), perspectives on effective forecasting will shift.