May seem like a stupid question, but what is 'the future'?

If you had to ask a hundred people this question, you will get a hundred different answers, because 'the future' is one of those human constructs that we all refer to on a daily basis, but very seldom stop and really think about the precise definition of.

So 'the future' is, according to some definitions:

• The period of time that follows the present
• The time that is yet to come
• The unexplored part of history

The future and time

If thinking a little deeper, the future is a construct of time.  

It is a 'time-related' realm and when you get into trying to define 'time' you start to get into other mental constructs such as 'relativity', 'entropy' and the 'continuum of events from the past, into the present and then into the future'.

The fact is, that time does not exist outside of thinking.

If you are not able to think about the future, then there is no such thing, because you will constantly just be experiencing life in the present moment.

This is what 'mindfulness' and the act of meditation is trying to do; to radically reduce active thinking so that you can just exist 'in the now'. Constrain thinking and the span of time narrows into the present moment.

If time doesn't exist outside of thinking, then logically the future doesn't exist outside of thinking.

If we wanted to generate a comprehensive, holistic view of history, we would have to access all of the collective thoughts, knowledge, experiences and ways of being of every individual who has ever lived.

History, or the time that has already pasted, is all of the thinking that has already been done.

The future

The future then is all of the collective and individual thoughts, knowledge, ideas and experiences that has not as yet, at any point in time before, been accessed and processed.

The future is all of the thinking that we have not yet done.

The future is the realm of things that we do not currently know about, it is the place where brand new thoughts and ideas, that no human being has ever had before, potentially exist.

The future is unknown because we literally haven't had the thoughts that will create and make it known to us yet.

With this in mind, a futurist is a professional practitioner who helps individuals and organisations with the generation of new thinking and new possible ways of being, which are more suited to the forecasted changing contextual and competitive environments that could possibly emerge in time.

A futurist is a facilitator of good, new thinking.

Because change is constant and inevitable, new thinking and new ways of being will always be necessary for survival.

Hanging onto old thinking and old ways of being under conditions of contextual change accelerates the incompatibility of those who unable or unwilling to innovate their thinking.

Better futures

The quality of your future depends on the quality of your thinking.

You can choose to fall back on the ol' 'tried and tested' approaches that you know and love, or you can boldly explore new thinking that will be better suited to where the world is heading.

Old thinking (old futures) is easy - you can look all of that up on Google for free; new thinking (better futures) requires courage and curiosity and creativity and confidence.

Think about it.

What is a futurist?

What is a futurist? What is this strange profession that dabbles in the future?

Jonathan CherryCherryflava

Primary imagining needed

We need new, original memories of the futures that we want to create.

Jonathan CherryCherryflava

If watching science fiction movies can help mentally bridge the distance between the present and the future, cocooning your mind into the future through video games takes it to another level.

Right now - the biggest game in the world is Cyberpunk 2077 and its primary strategy for recruiting new players to explore the year 2077 - is controversy.

The game itself is apparently full of bugs and glitches and technical issues, but this doesn't seem to have affected the amount of hype that it has generated or its popularity.

For some time now militaries around the world have been using VR to prepare their personal for potential combat scenarios, but one wonders about the potential for preparing normal people for the future of work or the future of life in the future by playing games like Cyberpunk 2077?

Makes you wonder if gamers are more prepared for the time yet to come compared to the rest of us?

Do you know who the most important person is when it comes to understanding your consumers?

Do you know who The Buyer is? This is the person who physically purchases your product from you. If you are in the airline business this person might be the PA that books the tickets of the executive that flies between Joburg and London on a monthly basis.

Do you know who The User is? The User is the individual who gets to physically use and benefit from the product. For children's plasters it would be the kid who scraped her knee skateboarding and needs a bit of Mom's TLC afterwards.

Do you know who The Decision-maker is? Who makes the decision as to which brand is chosen and which is not? In hospitals - the person who decides which floor cleaner gets to be used may never set foot inside the building where the floors get scrubbed with that product, but they decide on which brand to support regardless.

Do you know who Pays for the product? Who's money gets used to pay for the product? Who's bank account has less money in it today than it did yesterday because a decision was made by somebody other than the bank account's owner, instructing another to go out and get something because so-and-so needed it.

Your product's buyer / user / decision-maker / payee is not necessarily the same person.

It's worth spending time understanding who each of them might be and how you might choose to engage with each of them in the future.

If you think about it deeper than just the obvious superficial reaction we will all automatically feel obliged to blurt out when somebody says the number '2020' - the year 2020 was a remarkably enlightening one for the world.

We realised how much we like to be around each other (even introverts hated the idea of self-isolating), we acknowledged that we largely take our freedoms for granted, we breathed a collective sigh of relief when a B-grade American TV star wasn't given another chance to make more of a fool of himself, and his country; and marvelled at the groundswell of support throughout the world for a just social movement that really does feel decades beyond when it should have happened.

Transitioning is often accompanied by chaos, pain, torment and angst, but that is how we as a society grow and imagine 'what could be' anew.

The new year will not bring about a magical moment, where 2020 disappears and a marvellous and delightful 2021 blissfully emerges from the ashes; we will drag much of this year into the next.

But the journey of the emergence of our global spirit continues, just with new stories, and different things to be forever curious about and search for answers to.

Science fiction is a brilliant way to imaginatively explore how unthinkable futures might look and feel.

Very often the challenge in futures studies is the difficulty in setting the mind free enough to imagine futures that feel a little bit too 'out there'.  

Especially in a business setting where individuals might feel that their thinking could be perceived by others to be 'too wild' - it is not easy to facilitate truly creative thinking about the future under these conditions.

As an example - just 2 years ago it would have been inconceivable to think that a global pandemic would have shut down economies around the world and that everybody would be working from home and ordering their groceries via online apps that deliver in less than 30 minutes.

If you have told that story in a scenario planning workshop as a possible future state of the world you would have been fired and told to go join Neil Gaiman in cloud cuckoo land.

Increasingly though - academic futurists are exploring the value that science fiction narrative frameworks can play in our structure thinking about the future.

Two futurists from the National University of Singapore, Alessandro Fergnani and Zhaoli Song, have now published some fascinating research into the six scenario archetypes that they discovered by analysing hundreds of science fiction films set in the future.

From V for Vendetta to Waterworld, Wall E and The Hunger Games - each film's storyline that they included was categorised as representing a specific archetype in their framework - and they ended up with six distinctive themes throughout the genre: Growth & Decay, Threats & New Hopes, Wasteworlds, The Powers That Be, Disarray and Inversion.

Here are the details of each of the six:

Growth and Decay

'This archetype involves the continuation of the current capitalistic status quo, which grows even more rampantly. Corporations reigns unalloyed, potentially extending their power to policing, urban security, the management of public infrastructures, and law enforcement. Governmental power is absent or sidelined. Current technologies also grow steadily, pushed by monetary gains and
controlled by corporations.
Hints of societal collapse or decay are found in the society. Decay can manifest in various forms, from abject life conditions and patent disparities to mismanagement of urban hygiene and bleakness of the atmospheric environment, or in a combination of these elements. Decay can also manifest in the decadence of common values, or in the conflict between values between different groups of
individuals/factions. For example, leadership can be evil, primarily profit seeking and dominative, while subordinates are subjugated.
This archetype is represented by the cyberpunk genre in cinema, although it is also portrayed in films that do not entirely fit into this genre.'

This archetype is portrayed in the Steven Spielberg movie Ready Player One:

Threats and New Hopes

In this archetype, no significant change affects mankind, and human life conditions are very similar to the present. However, an imminent catastrophic or apocalyptic event or phenomenon threats mankind’s existence. This impending occurrence can take various forms, including environmental disasters, man-made destructions, or aliens’ invasion. National and supranational governmental bodies or military organisations collaborate to devise a global plan of rescue, while the private sector is less relevant. Individuals sacrifice their personal wealth, affections and even their lives for the common good in order to save the world as humanity is united to fight a common enemy. This archetype is represented by the disaster genre in cinema, although it is also portrayed in films that do not entirely fit into this genre.

This archetype can be found in the movie Transcendence:

Wasteworlds

In this archetype, a catastrophic event or phenomenon has already occurred, bringing about substantial transformations on a global scale. The atmospheric environment is often perniciously hit, forcing humans to adapt to drastic life conditions.
Often times, on the backdrop of severe resources’ scarcity, human civilisation has regressed to sustenance level. The market economy has given way to more rudimentary economic systems, such as barter or the use of water, oil, or sand as currencies. Few survivors live in scattered tribal communities, struggling for life and often exploited by gangs of outlaws. Tyrannical local leaders often
subjugate these defenceless communities, expropriating their resources. Individuals fight against each other for survival. Other times, humans abandon earth altogether due to unliveable environmental conditions, this being a variation of the archetype, albeit with the same initial premises.
This archetype is represented by the post-apocalyptic genre in cinema, Mad Max: Fury Road is a good example.

The Powers That Be

In this archetype, a catastrophic event or phenomenon, often man-made, has already occurred. Although this has left a scar on the human species to the point that population is often significantly reduced, mankind resumes its path to progress quickly thereafter.
However, strict totalitarian or dictatorial powers emerge from this checkered past, ostensibly to carefully prevent the occurrence of other man-made devastating events or phenomena in the future. Technology is advanced, but centralised in the hands of governmental bodies and used as an instrument of control. Running parallel to technical progress, citizens’ rights, happiness, freedom, and emotions
are limited from above. Individuals attempt to emancipate, to rebel against existing regimes, or to uproot them.
This archetype is represented by the dystopia genre in cinema - have a look at the movie Aeon Flux starring Charlize Theron.

Disarray

In this archetype, although in absence of apparent transformational changes in the economy or atmospheric environment, mankind faces structural endogenous problems. The globe is plagued by any of the following: endemic crime, social unrest and disorder, widespread poverty, ignorance, infertility, violent confrontation and war, famines, or pandemics; or by a combination of these.
Although the private sector is still present, military and policing organisations, either official or non-official, have a more central role in this future. Individual endeavours zero in on restoring or maintaining justice, order, or protection of citizens.
This archetype can be seen in the movie Children of Men.

Inversion

In this archetype, the role of mankind is turned upside down, as it is outpaced or subjugated by a superior civilisation, agent, or organism. Human beings no longer dominate the planet. Often times, they are instead dominated by creatures of higher physical prowess, of which they become preys. Alien species invading the planet or the entire galaxy is an example, either monstrous or anthropomorphic in appearance. However, this superior entity could also manifest itself in more subtle manners, such as an ostensible creator or supervisor with whom mankind ought not interfere.
This archetype is represented by the aliens’ genre in cinema, although it is also portrayed in films that do not entirely fit into this genre. The 2018 film A Quiet Place is an example.

How the six archetypes can be used for scenario planning

There are a number of ways that scenario planning can be done and there are numerous methods that can be used.

Scenario archetypes, as one of those methods, are useful because they offer a frame within which you can position your organisation, your focal issue that you are investigating as well as the driving forces of change and uncertainty that you are wishing to better understand as to how they may unfold into the future, all within the different contexts of each of the archetypal narratives.

What makes them come alive so vividly for people are the background worlds that are given by the related movies in each one of the archetypes offered here. These provide an inspirational backdrop against which specific, detailed stories that are meaningful for your own investigation, can be created.

For more - here's a link to the research paper:

The six scenario archetypes framework: A systematic investigation of science fiction films set in the future

We propose a new scenario archetypes method generated by extracting a set of archetypal images of the future from a sample of 140 science fiction film…

Author links open overlay panelAlessandroFergnaniZhaoliSongScienceDirectScienceDirect

If there's one aspect of business that universally all companies will need to address in 2021, it's the digitisation of systems, the careful structuring of the data analytics function and the careful and logical investment into e-commerce capabilities.

Digitisation of the value chain in 2021 will be key to building a more resilient business next year; the real challenge is making sure you do it in the best possible without wasting too much time and money on expensive mistakes and experiments along the way.

Speaking to management consultants who have all the book smarts in the space is expensive and largely irrelevant, because they've never built these systems themselves.

Service providers who have vested interests in selling their own products to you are also seriously biased when it comes to objective advice.

The best way to start the process then is to harvest the invaluable perspectives of individuals that have successfully built some of the best e-commerce and digitisation platforms themselves, before setting out on your own journey of discovery.

Get the story from digital practitioners who have learnt all the hard lessons themselves - so that you don't need to waste time and money doing the same thing yourself.

All too often a business will pursue a digitisation strategy thinking that it's an easy route to profitability, only to realise far down the investment-line that potential profitability needs to be built into the initial design of project.

Things to consider

Just some of the aspects of the value chain that will need very careful consideration as to how you plan to approach them will include:

• Technical - how your investment will be built and maintained and by whom
• Logistics & warehousing - what are the cost implications of each and what should you be looking for in a service provider
• Marketing - how will you compete in the expensive and competitive online marketplace
• Produce range - what products work, what products don't
• Profitability - what is your route to profitability in the online space
• Customer service - too many great brands have been broken by lapses in strategic foresight when it comes to how they handle customer service
• Brand - how will you successfully deliver your brand when so much is out of your control
• Data - what to do with it once you have it
• Industry trends - what developments are happening now that you should know of to successfully invest into an asset that will have longevity

A solution

Seeing a need for qualified perspectives on these topics and knowledge from people who have the battle scars from building these systems themselves - Cherryflava has put together a panel of thought leaders in the digital space who are available to workshop your 2021 digitisation plan with you.

If you are interested in fast-tracking your thinking through this workshop ahead of investing a lot of money into exploring your digital options for 2021 - then please get in touch with Jon Cherry for more details, availability and costings.

South Africa's future is dependent on the growth of the number of successful entrepreneurs and small business owners that it can nurture.

Strong economies like those of the USA, and rapidly expanding regions of South East Asia, were built on the back of purposefully strong entrepreneurial growth and innovation.

For young South Africans, and those who have the drive to be 'their own boss' and call the shots in their own business, 2021 is really the ideal time to be venturing out on your own and creating your own future.

With a new focus by the government on promoting localisation and and an increasing demand by big business to source more of their value chain from South African suppliers - along with historically low interest rates - all signs are indicating that it has never been a better time to start a small business in South Africa.

South African mobile-operator Cell C is calling on all prospective entrepreneurs to use this summer time to start recording those business plans, to change their destiny and change their world in the process.

To help out even more, entrepreneurs can stand the chance to win 1 of 20 Nissan NP200 bakkies which will be given away weekly to lucky winners of the #ChangeYourSummer campaign.

If you don't already have an existing business that a bakkie will be useful for - just imagine all of the other small businesses that you can get off the ground thanks to owning a Nissan NP200.

You could create a:

• Small-goods moving business
• A courier company
• A food truck
• A bin-cleaning service
• A mobile nail salon
• An LP gas-cylinder delivery service
• A recycling collection service
• A mobile dog grooming van

...and there are so many more. All of these can start making money for you from January 2021 should you be lucky enough to win.

How to enter and stand a chance to win

To stand a chance of winning big in Cell C’s Summer Campaign, customers need to either sign up for a new contract, recharge, or upgrade an existing contract. Existing Prepaid, Postpaid and TopUp customers can also buy any number of qualifying bundles, which are available for purchase through USSD (*147#), Cell C’s online portal, the Cell C app and Bank ATM’s.

Each time a qualifying purchase is made, a customer will be allocated spins, with which they stand a chance to unlock prizes in the game. By taking part, they stand a chance to be entered into the grand prize draw to win one of 20 bakkies.

The competition is open to active Prepaid, Postpaid and TopUp Cell C customers who purchase qualifying bundles. Customers who take part are also then entered into a draw, where they stand a chance to win prizes that include laptops, smartphones, tablets, cash, grocery vouchers, takeaway vouchers and clothing vouchers.

To enter this competition - head on over to the Cell C page here.

Four lucky winners have already won bakkies in this competition to date, giving their entrepreneurial ambitions a major kick start.

In the 18th century, travelling on the open ocean in a small sailing ship was an extremely dangerous thing to do.

Accurate maps of the ocean obviously didn't exist and the ships in those days were fragile wooden constructions with flimsy fabric sails and no modern electricity for proper lighting and food refrigeration.

Being a sailor was extremely dangerous, because there were so many unknowns that came with the job. Probably as a direct result of the fear associated with the task, seamen developed entire libraries of superstitions, myths, legends and sailing folklore.

For example, it was considered extremely unlucky to set sail on a Friday, along with the very idea of killing an albatross. Bananas are apparently still not the ideal fruit to have on board a yacht and whistling is strongly discouraged on a ship, because it is said to be considered a 'challenge to the wind'.

Superstitions like these were born out of the fear of the unknown and the uncertainty of purposefully setting out to sea.

Fear of the future

When faced with uncertainty and the unknown we can often default to a mindset of fear.

All sorts of dire stories and projections of disaster can fill our minds and overwhelm our emotional state. We can become engulfed with worry; paralysed by a feeling of being out of control and finding ourselves in a miserable place of insecurity.

This can be how our mind's react to the future when it is looking more uncertain than usual to us. When we mentally forecast that tough times lie ahead - we tend to zoom in on just that one negative narrative of the future and set up a 'misery camp' there, (this is probably why today we have a global epidemic of people gravitating towards unfounded conspiracy theories, drawing comfort from the knowing that modern monsters are indeed to blame for the woes that they future has brought).

But the future is not pre-determined.

Destiny certainly does not control the future, which is why you simply cannot predict the future.

At any point in time there are multiple alternative futures available to us - our journey towards any of them (seen and unseen) is determined by the decisions that we make in the present, our agency to act on those decisions and luck (or forces outside on our control).

In truth the only real agency that you have is in the outcome of the future. It's when we fail to recognise that, that fear of the future seeps slowly back into our minds.

"Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyses needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and of vigour has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory. And I am convinced that you will again give that support to leadership in these critical days." - Franklin D. Roosevelt

Choosing to go backwards

Fear of the future then is futile and trying to regress back to a space that feel more controllable is just one option available from a selection of many.

The past might seem like a safe bet, because it looks and feels familiar to us; that's why very often when faced with a heightened sense of 'future uncertainty' many companies will choose to retrench their staff or downsize there operations to a point where they feel more in control of things.

Retreat however is unimaginative and is a clear indication of a lack of leadership, creativity and self confidence.

What to do instead

The future is the realm of uncertainty and the unknown, but it is also the only place of potential and opportunity.

Embrace the fact that any control your thought you had of the future was an illusion all along; set your mind at ease in the knowing that the future is uncertain.

Then spend time exploring the many possible futures that are available. Make plans ahead of time for the futures that are undesirable and put steps in place to journey towards the future that is preferred.

Step away from the idea that you are a victim of the future and towards the mindset that you have agency over the time yet to come.

I'm increasingly finding value in exploring science fiction as a method of exploring alternative images of the future.

As a part of my research, what I do find fascinating is that there are far more dystopian science fiction films out there than you will find utopian-theme titles.

Somehow bad news seems to sell better at the box office (a fact that news agencies also know all too well), but right now on Netflix there is a science fiction movie called The Discovery - that if you close one eye and keep an open mind could be considered a dystopian / utopian science fiction hybrid.

The Discovery explores serious themes like suicide as well as romance, regret, existence, and even the multiverse and stars Rooney Mara, Jason Segel and Robert Redford.

Overall though the film is about 'overwhelming proof' that an afterlife exists and as a result of people knowing this, actively choosing to then commit suicide in order to experience this phenomena for themselves.

If you're looking for something cerebral, enjoy science fiction or want to be intellectually harassed by your choice of entertainment - then this is the movie for you.  

In 2017, Charles Duhigg writing for The New York Times described good marketing  as "the art of telling stories so enthralling that people lose track of their wallets."

Companies that have mastered 'the art of good marketing' are able to have that affect on our lives these days; Netflix, Apple, Aviation Gin, Monocle Magazine - these are all great examples of this magical phenomenon.

Peter Drucker, the famed management guru, once stated:

"Because the purpose of business is to create a customer, the business enterprise has two--and only two--basic functions: marketing and innovation. Marketing and innovation produce results; all the rest are costs. Marketing is the distinguishing, unique function of the business."

Sadly, indications are that the management of many of South Africa's biggest companies are not a fans of Peter Drucker - or believe in the power of fantastic storytelling to capture people's wallets and money.

Increasingly, in a wide variety of industries in South Africa - the function of marketing is not valued at all. In fact, in many cases, marketing is regarded with open disdain; its seen as a grudge expense with no real value and an impact which is difficult to quantify.

The people who are appointed to perform the role of marketing in general are woefully incapable of doing the job - they lack the training, skill and passion for the profession. Individuals are assigned to the marketing function who are unable to create a functional strategy, they lack the ability to inspire the best out of appointed service providers and don't have the professional confidence to take on the creative risks needed to progress a brand into its best future.

As a result - the overall quality of the South African marketing profession's output is poor...and getting worse. Much of the established marketing talent in the industry have left their positions because of the eroding influence of the function.

The management focus these days is far more on finance, operations, logistics, IT and production than on the 'soft, creative, unmeasurable, airy-fairy' side of the business.

Not just in South Africa, but globally, the CMO position is disappearing.

Many leading brands around the world, including Unilever, Johnson & Johnson, Uber, Lyft, Beam Suntory, Taco Bell, Hyatt Hotels, Mars Wrigley, Kimberly-Clark and McDonald’s, have eliminated their CMO positions.

What is often the case though is that the old CMO position has now been merged with sales and business development into a new C-Suite position known as the Chief Growth Officer.

This move runs the risk of diluting the role that less measurable and riskier aspects of the growth function play - practically ensuring that brands grow through measurable analytical approaches rather than anything that might be classified as 'art'.

The result is blandness and a form of marketing sterility that helps to produce brands that nobody actually gives a damn about and are easily replaced in the hearts and minds of consumers.

The state of the marketing profession in South Africa 2021 is not a good one.

The task of leading a business in "the art of telling stories so enthralling that people lose track of their wallets" has been handed to individuals who are not able to do that and / or the need for such 'witchcraft' has been dropped from the organisational strategy entirely.

If the primary mission of any company is 'to attract and retain a customer' - by 'creating an experience so amazing that they just wouldn't dream of doing business anywhere else' - then I can't think of too many South African brands (other than Capitec and Nando's) that are delivering on that mission.

At this time, there are many loud voices calling for the 'reimagining' of things.

The global fashion industry says that they need to reimagine how our clothing is made, because current methods are seriously polluting the planet.

Economists and some politicians want a reimagining of capitalism, because the present model creates unsustainable levels of inequality and environmental damage.

Some even want us to have a reimagining of democracy and how it could work in the future.

The problem with the task of reimagining anything is that it is calling for us to go back into the entrenched mental memory that we have of that thing - and somehow reorder the way we think about it to create something new.

That sounds pretty simple, but our brains tend to be pretty tenacious as to how they hold onto ideas that we already understand.

Reimagining is a bit like taking a VW Golf GTI hatchback (and because of global warming, roads are now flooded and have become water canals, you need a boat rather than a car) and trying to recreate it as a brand new vehicle, which is fully capable of getting you from A to B on water.

A reimagining of something that already has legacy and occupies existing mental real estate is not the best way to create something new, that actually serves and delivers on the fresh mandate that you want from it.

You cannot create something new from the decaying parts of the old.

What is needed when what was existing no longer seems to work is primary imagining of how the ideal outcome might be achieved.

We don't need capitalism: we need an economic system that is fair, transparent, benefits the most number of people in the world and eliminates the destruction of the planet as a by-product.

We don't need democracy: we need a way to hold public officials to account and a method under which they can transparently operate which produces equitable public policy that ensures the maximisation of the potential of a nation state.

Creating these systems won't be as a result of a reimagining of what we already have - it needs brand new thinking, original imagining, new ideas as to how we produce what we want.  

We need new, original memories of the futures that we want to create - a primary imagining of how it could be.

There was a time when the idea of men spending time in the kitchen was parse.

The Jamie Oliver came along and that ol' gender stereotype evaporated. Men began to see sharp knives, fire, cast iron pans and sizzling meat as 'manly'.

Luckily for me I was a bachelor for 26 years - so I had to learn how to cook otherwise I wouldn't be eating anything.

Now a new gender stereotype is getting a relook - this time it's the idea that men enjoy sewing.

The New York Times reports that the pandemic has caused some men to loose their minds and reach for their wife's sewing machines in an effort to battle away lockdown boredom.

'Sewists (the increasingly popular gender-neutral term) have long worked to shake the old-fashioned housewife imagery often associated with their hobby. Collective creative efforts ranging from the AIDS Memorial Quilt to knitting pussy hats have moved the home arts into the political and public sphere. And with DIYers able to show their stuff on platforms like Pinterest and Instagram, sewing and other handicrafts are surging in popularity.' - via

Turns out some of them are pretty handy with a needle and thread and sales of sewing machines in the US at least - are booming.

Time to go find my mother's old Elna machine and see what I can get for it on Gumtree (actually nobody uses Gumtree anymore...correction...Facebook Marketplace).

More Men Reach for Sewing Machines

A long-neglected home art is reclaimed during the pandemic, including by some eager to break gender stereotypes.

NYTimes

Sudden sewing boom has sewing machine sellers scrambling

Sewing instructor Ryliss Bod started a one-hour face mask sewing class. It’s quickly become one of her most popular classes.

Parija Kavilanz, CNN BusinessCNN

Harry Styles’s Vogue cover challenges gender stereotypes

Unless you’ve been actively avoiding the internet, I’m sure you know that Harry Styles, an English singer and songwriter, was recently photographed for Vogue, making him the first solo man to ever be featured on the cover.

Avani GoswamiThe Daily Targum

German award for worst advertising gender stereotypes goes to TOPModel | DW | 02.12.2020

TOPModel uses a cast of 14 dolls to market its stationery and makeup products to girls. A German initiative to challenge harmful messages in ads has just awarded the brand a prize for “absurd gender marketing.”

Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)DW.COM

If you start a business these days most people would expect that your intention is to grow it as quickly as possible, build a significant asset to value and then sell it on to a bigger company for a massive profit.

Modern business terms like exponential, scale, flip & unicorn are commonplace these days in golf club locker rooms.

For many the focus is purely on making as much money as possible within the shortest space of time.

But in Japan the intended purpose of many businesses is very different.

Japan is home to some of the world oldest businesses - some of which have been going for hundreds of years.

“If you look at the economics textbooks, enterprises are supposed to be maximizing profits, scaling up their size, market share and growth rate. But these companies’ operating principles are completely different,” said Kenji Matsuoka, a professor emeritus of business at Ryukoku University in Kyoto.'

“Their No. 1 priority is just carrying on,” he added. “Each generation is like a runner in a relay race. What’s important is passing the baton.”

'Japan is an old-business superpower. The country is home to more than 33,000 with at least 100 years of history — over 40 percent of the world’s total, according to a study by the Tokyo-based Research Institute of Centennial Management. Over 3,100 have been running for at least two centuries. Around 140 have existed for more than 500 years. And at least 19 claim to have been continuously operating since the first millennium.'

'To survive for a millennium, Ms. Hasegawa said, a business cannot just chase profits. It has to have a higher purpose. In the case of Ichiwa, that was a religious calling: serving the shrine’s pilgrims.'

'Those kinds of core values, known as “kakun,” or family precepts, have guided many companies’ business decisions through the generations. They look after their employees, support the community and strive to make a product that inspires pride.'

Japanese small businesses do make profit, but keep significant cash reserves on-hand just in case there is trouble on the horizon (then they can at least still afford to pay salaries). They avoid growth as much as possible, keep debt at a minimum and tend to hire family members to keep the payroll modest.

These are businesses that are built for the long-term and are not swayed by the glitz and glamour of making a quick buck.

This Japanese Shop Is 1,020 Years Old. It Knows a Bit About Surviving Crises.

A mochi seller in Kyoto, and many of Japan’s other centuries-old businesses, have endured by putting tradition and stability over profit and growth.

Hisako UenoNYTimes

‘This Is Insanity’: Start-Ups End Year in a Deal Frenzy

Investors are tripping over one another to give hot start-ups money. DoorDash and Airbnb are going public. The good times are baaack.

Erin GriffithNYTimes

As much as I don't really like the term 'the new normal' (because when was anything ever 'normal') - I'm going to suppress my urge to fling the sheet of paper that I recently boldly wrote these words on in the trash, and refer purposefully to it here rather with a straight face.

A lot of people are speculating as to what 'the new normal' will look like once the world emerges from this devastating global affliction that we are currently enduring.

As we all now know, emerging issues and changes that were on the distant horizon before the pandemic, have been significantly accelerated since; and now, we are all very comfortable with ordering our groceries online and working in our pyjamas in the lounge.

But what will 'the new normal' be like for businesses?

What does the future of operating and running a successful business look like this time next year?

What the pandemic has gifted business is a huge wake up call as to how doing business has changed.

As an example...

Every time I drive to the V&A Waterfront now - I drive past a brand new, multi-story office block that is in the process of being finished.

It's beautiful! It's a handsome design with an impressive glass frontage and probably views to die for.

It's also a bureaucratic relic of the past.

It screams old, stable, stuck, stodgy and dated. This is how business was done pre-pandemic - and those days are over.

'The new normal' is that we need to accept and adopt wholeheartedly into our thinking some indisputable facts – and I have 4 of them here:

'The new normal' for organisations is this - 4 facts to remember

1. The future is uncertain - the future today will not look like it did yesterday so models and tools that take yesterday's data and project it forward are useless and dangerous in the face of an uncertain future. What is given is that the future is the realm of uncertainty and because of that fact, planning for an uncertain future all of a sudden requires a different mindset to when we all thought of the future as somehow predictable. Being really comfortable with 'not knowing' is a vital skill for the post-covid business operator.
2. Disruption can come from anywhere - your existing competitors are fighting just as hard as you are to stay in business and grow. They're innovating, hiring talented people, thinking strategically, and now, they're not just the competitors that you know of who have an office down the road - they could be located anywhere in the world and be in any number of alternative industries to yours. Technology has ensured that everything and anything can be improved and offered cheaper by just about anyone. Disruption is a given - it's what you should be expecting and constantly working with.
3. Only the agile will survive - there is no more of a competitive advantage to having a big fancy office, an expensive CEO, executives that fly business class around the world and an organisational structure that preserves hierarchy and bureaucracy; but there are a lot of advantages to being fast, nimble, global and future-fit. Companies with impressive offices in Sandton are being put out of business by garage-operations in India. Building a business that is structured to dance is 'the new normal'.
4. A need for a commitment to constant renewal - Amazon's Jeff Bezos stresses to his staff that 'everyday is day 1'. What he means by that is that everyday at Amazon they need to be listening afresh to their customers, everyday they need to commit yet again to improving their decision-making skills, everyday they need to look at what is going in in the world with fresh eyes and make plans accordingly. Assuming that you have somehow 'made it' or that you have 'finally arrived' is how we would classify death in business terms now. Every business is on a constant, unfolding journey 'of becoming' - if you neglect that, you die.

'The new normal' is to think of a business like a pack of African Wild Dogs - one of the most successful predators on the African continent.

African Wild Dogs hunt collaboratively as a purpose-driven unit. They are constantly assessing the terrain and the conditions as to where their next kill is likely to be found. As small as they are, they're effective as a hunting unit because they communicate with each other and always make decisions based on what's best for the pack. They take their chances where they spot opportunity and know that each day is a new day out in the veld. Change is constant, but so is their learning and journey as a pack.

So how might business prepare for 'the new normal'?

Planning | Innovation | Structure | Culture

• Work with the uncertainty through better foresight & planning - Planning in most businesses is done very, very poorly. Strategy is see as a process of simply extrapolating the past into the future and having a linear view of how the future will unfold. This builds a business that is reactionary in the marketplace and opens it up for nasty surprises. Gathering intelligence and strategic planning is something that should be done constantly and systemically by a dedicated team of specialists - not just something that happens once a year at an off-site workshop. Foresight and proper planning is a mindset that needs to be fostered and nurtured until it is an entrenched part of a company's DNA. This doesn't come naturally for most - it needs to be a part of how you do business.
• Innovate through corporate entrepreneurship -  Innovation of process, product, engagement and route-to-market is vital. Innovation can't just be a project, it needs to become a core organisational competency.
• Structure for speed - Organisational structure needs to enable the organisation to work at pace, barriers need to be dissolved, talent needs to be leveraged, conditions need to be created for agile operating to be a reality.
• Culture enables it all - The organisational culture needs to facilitate an actively 'thinking and doing' organisation that is curious, open, humble, collaborative and eager to learn.

'The new normal' is here. The pandemic has amplified the conditions under which it has now become the most sustainable way of operating a business.

If organisations are going to develop into what they 'should be' and ultimately into what they 'could be' - a new way of being is needed right now.  

Ehsanophobia is the fear of spending money and is usually triggered when people realise that they are running out of money to spend and fear the future after that tragedy occurs.

This might not sound like a problem for the world, but when your economy is built on the foundation of consumerism, and on the assumption that people will just carry on spending money on new things ad infinitum, you've got some serious problems when widespread ehsanophobia manifests in the population.

A drop in consumer demand for goods has a profound knock-on effect on all businesses because you have less money flowing through an economy, which means fewer people get employed, investment returns fall in value and individual sentiment to actively engage in the sale and purchase of goods and services evaporates.

Modern economics relies heavily on optimism.

If people fear the future they find lots of reasons to stop spending their money and that fear literally creates the conditions under which that morbid fear will then manifest.

Evidence seems to suggest that in South Africa and the 'Western world' at least - consumer spending is very much down, but in China the reverse is happening.

• Retail sales in China reached US$6.2 trillion last year, and Beijing is switching its focus to its domestic economy to support the economy
• The figure puts China around US$200 billion shy of American consumer spending in 2019.

So the problem is fear.

Fear of the future, pessimism about what the future holds, worry that jobs will disappear and money will dry up.

With levels of trust at an all time low, a lot of work needs to be done at the global leadership level to turn this situation around; where that new hope will come from is obviously unclear.

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China to pass US, become world’s top consumer goods market ‘very soon’

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